A Dark Winter
It's not about the electricity bill.
It has already become harder to be a dissident in the West and as social unrest grows through the winter it will probably get even worse.
With censorship on the rise it’s necessary to review the rules of engagement so we stay safe in these difficult times.
Some Dare Call It Treason
The war in Ukraine is in its 7th month and is unlikely to end any time soon.
At the very least I am expecting it to see its first anniversary and at the opposite end I fear a five year ordeal with a massive loss of life and several cycles of polarization in the West.
Most people in the dissident sphere are convinced Russia will win, however I am not so sure. I think we have more war ahead of than behind us and it could go either way.
Besides, is Russian victory even a good thing?
The greater threat Russia poses the more important suppressing real or imagined Russian collaboration will be.
We are already at the point where all major dissenting narratives are assumed to be Kremlin-backed and this will likely apply in relation to the American midterms in November and general malaise during the winter.
You might say the worst they could do is close social media accounts and I believe that will be 90% of the response.
However, Britain freezing Graham Phillips’ assets and Germany confiscating Alina Lipp’s money in retaliation for covering Donbass gives cause for concern.
It’s about time we established some safety measures to protect ourselves against further crackdowns.
Media Discipline
I recommend all dissidents stop writing for or republishing articles with the following:
Genuinely Russia state-affiliated media, such as RT or Sputnik.
Eurasianist or Russian separatist websites such as Geopolitika or Donbass Insider.
Outlets that frequently quote Russian government agencies, politicians or military staff in an affirmative manner.
The negatives of having bylines in these places far exceed the positives at the moment. Unless you are looking to end up on a “Russian propagandists” list, stay away!
In regards to 3., I am not referring to everyone who ever cited a Russian source or criticized NATO’s role in Ukraine, I am talking about websites that are littered with Maria Zakharova quotes or primarily cover Russian foreign policy.
In addition to not writing for Russian media, it’s probably best not to cite them.
Backing up your argument with an article from Russia Today or Sputnik probably won’t get you very far, if it does the person you are speaking to is likely already a dissident.
If you need a link stick to Western dissident outlets, however it’s better to relay on yourself. You need to make your own case, not leave it to others to do it for you.
Look for internal contradictions or leaps of logic in your opponent’s argument, reason with them and let them decide for themselves if you make valid points.
Psychological Warfare
Angry or fearful speech is more likely to look ridiculous than add weight to your arguments in the eyes of opponents who aren’t convinced the issue is something to get upset about.
For this reason it’s important to manage your emotions when engaging in online debates or information warfare in general.
In this instance, managing your emotions means to stay as emotionally uninvolved as possible.
Emotional involvement can be divided into three levels:
Emotional Distance
Ironic Distance
Emotional involvement
Emotional distance means you are in a headspace that is neither angry, sad or fearful in relation to the positions and arguments put forth by your opponent.
It also means you are not invested in the outcome of the discussion, you present your case in a “take it or leave it” fashion and are content to walk away should the recipient refuse it.
This is the most effective frame of mind and should be maintained above the other two whenever possible.
Ironic distance sits somewhere between emotional distance and involvement. You are still in the safe zone, but are sliding towards the edge.
In ironic distance mode you are experiencing spells of anger, but are able to resist taking it out on your opponent by using jokes or sarcasm as a defense mechanism.
If you are getting progressively more sarcastic throughout the conversation, this is a sign to step back and possibly abandon the discussion.
Emotional involvement means your opponent inflicted an emotional wound and you are no longer able to present logical arguments.
This is a breakdown of emotion management and as good as defeat in psychological warfare, your only option is to cut your losses and retreat.
Geopolitics Won’t Save Us
The war in Ukraine is now the nr. 1 dividing line in the culture war, even though it didn’t exist eight months ago.
More and more dissidents are placing their faith in Russia, seeing the country as a savior that will cause the downfall of the West.
This sets them up for a massive disappointment should Russia lose, something we already had a taste of with the Kharkiv offensive.
The best decision we can make right now is to step away from this geopolitics thing.
We are all interconnected in terms of the economy and infrastructure. A winter deep freeze will hit dissidents just as hard as the establishment, if not more so.
In addition, neither Russia nor any foreign power can reengineer Western democracies from the outside, that falls to us.