The Oasis Theory and the Myth of the Political Center
Starting from a weird analogy and taking it...somewhere?
The Oasis Theory is a political theory presupposing political groups center around power first and ideology second.
The power can be economic, military or informational. A node usually has one primary type of power which it uses to acquire one or more of the others, for example a business hiring a PR agency or a newspaper encouraging people to take up arms against the government.
The areas closest to power are the most populated and the further away the sparser the population gets. “Population” in this context means the presence of political parties, think tanks, etc.
Pursuing an idea too far away is like living in the desert where the soil is cracking and nothing will grow, which is why people flock to the fertile ground surrounding a source of power like an oasis.
This adds another layer on top of the classical political map, one might still use the left-right and authoritarian-libertarian spectrums like the cardinal points on a compass. However, one should not imagine the landscape evenly occupied or its ekistics as a lengthy conurbation with a smooth gradient of opinion.
The political landscape has always been largely empty. In days past the inhabitants lived in isolated settlements scattered across the sands, but since the arrival of mass communication the tendency has been convergence.
In the modern infoscape, just like in American politics, there are only two rival oases constantly at war. In recent years they have been at each other’s throat about Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In Oasis Theory these two camps are named the Light and Dark Oasis. They each have their own information ecosystems known under several names. I call them the Sun and Moon media, but you are probably more familiar with the adjectives “mainstream” and “alternative”.
The Myth of the Political Center
There is no such thing as a Centrist. All that exists are tepid Leftists and Rightists, or in Oasis Theory terms: acolytes of the Light and Dark Oasis.
Those who try surviving in the no man’s land between the oases never last long. Not only do they have few friends, but are also bombarded by both sides. We are all forced to pick our faction, so that there is someone who will not attack us.
Some might want to settle in the periphery and they might also be indifferent to the enemy. These are the things people usually mean when they call themselves Centrists, but even though they do not feel at home in their oasis they still live there.
The rival oases are not evenly matched. The Light Oasis is more powerful than the Dark Oasis. The Light is also the most cohesive, while the Dark is relatively disorganized.
The Light Oasis is popular enough to be selective with applicants. They have plenty of staff for all of their institutions. They even have enough to let different niches have their own stuff and act like independent branches.
The Dark Oasis is born out of competing groups pooling resources because they are too small to thrive alone. Its adherents straddle the Left-Right axis and many other divides. They are more united by being against the Light than anything else.
This asymmetry is the origin of the coalescence into two camps, because in the Information Age everyone is within reach and enemies not taking refuge in the Dark Oasis are destroyed.
The Dark Oasis and Russia
Russia is correctly perceived as a member of the Dark Oasis, but their role within it is often misunderstood. Many hold them to be its leader and source of the narratives informing its actions, but in reality they are a minor participant.
The Dark Oasis, like the Light, is controlled by its collective unconscious, which is an aggregate of the biases, feelings and interests of its adherents. This unconsciousness helps its followers separate friend from foe and spurs them to propagate it without their knowledge.
Although all constituents contribute to the collective mind, some have more influence than others. The trunk of the Light Oasis is located in the United States, with roots extending primarily through the anglosphere and to a lesser degree the rest of the world.
Weirdly, the Dark Oasis’s center of gravity is not found in either Russia or China. It is located in the same place, the USA, with tendrils extending in similar directions. How does this make sense?
The United States is the world’s mightiest nation militarily, economically and informationally. The country is so strong that its opposition is more powerful than the ruling party in Moscow or Beijing.
The denizens of the anglosphere are also better acquainted with the Light Oasis’s ideology, which makes dissenters more qualified and motivated.
All in all, America is more at war with its own shadow than any foreign government.
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